M10 — Expand Worksheet
Six pages. The point: replace the founder’s gut feeling about “where to expand next” with a scored shortlist, a binary test, and a cash bridge that survives the test failing. A worksheet that won’t let you confuse “we sold one in Germany” with “the model works in Germany”.
Page 1 — Second-market shortlist + the choice
Run after prompt 1. Three candidates scored, one chosen, the choice written down.
Current market 1 — geography + channel: ______
Three candidate second markets (geography OR channel, not both):
| Candidate | Type (new geo / new channel) | Reachability (1-5) | Translatability (1-5) | Cost to enter (1-5) | Signal quality (1-5) | Cash recovery (1-5) | Total (/25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |||||||
| 2 | |||||||
| 3 |
- Highest total: ______
- Chosen candidate: ______
- Tie-breaker used (higher signal quality wins if within 2 points): Y/N ______
- Written justification for the choice (3 sentences): ______
Page 2 — Market 1 baseline + variable discipline
Run after prompts 2 and 4. The spec sheet and the discipline rules.
Market 1 baseline — the rates market 2 has to substantially match:
| Stage | Market 1 rate | Sample size | Confidence (reliable / suggestive / anecdotal) | Match threshold for market 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contact → reply | within 30% | |||
| Reply → call | within 30% | |||
| Call → close | within 30% | |||
| CAC | at or below 1.5x | |||
| Revenue per customer | within 30% | |||
| Time from contact to close | within 50% |
Variable discipline — what’s changing vs what’s held constant:
| Changed in market 2 (target: 1, max: 2) | Why this variable is the one tested |
|---|---|
| Held constant from market 1 (everything else) | Discipline rule that protects it under pressure |
|---|---|
| Offer | |
| Price | |
| Positioning / core message | |
| Funnel structure | |
| Founder time per contact | |
| Qualifying criteria | |
| Follow-up cadence |
Page 3 — Replication test plan (signed before launch)
Run after prompt 3. One page. Signed. Dated.
The test:
- Offer (unchanged from M5-M7): ______
- Market 2 (geography + channel — fully specified): ______
- Funnel mechanic (same as market 1): ______
- Test window: 90 days, starting ______, ending ______
- Sample target: ______ qualified contacts (minimum 50 directional, 200 confident)
- Binary pass criteria: rates within threshold on at least 4 of 6 stages AND CAC at or below 1.5x market 1
- Binary fail criteria: less than 4 of 6 stages within threshold OR CAC above 1.5x market 1
Signed (founder): ______ Date: ______
Goalposts moved between launch and month 3? Y/N: ______ (if Y, the test is invalidated — close and learn)
Page 4 — Expansion cost stack + cash bridge
Run after prompts 5 and 6. The numbers that decide whether the test launches at all.
90-day expansion cost stack:
| Category | Weekly run-rate | 90-day total | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition cost | |||
| Market research + entry | |||
| Channel setup | |||
| Operational overhead | |||
| Inventory / capacity | |||
| Contingency (25% of above) | |||
| TOTAL |
- Available cash buffer (from M9): ______
- Total cost as % of buffer: ______% (if over 60%, reduce sample target or shorten test window — do not launch over 60%)
12-month cash bridge — three scenarios:
| Month | Scenario (a) test passes month 3 | Scenario (b) test fails month 3 | Scenario (c) mixed signal, extend 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |||
| 3 | |||
| 6 | |||
| 12 |
- Does scenario (b) break another commitment (payroll, supplier, tax, debt)? Y/N: ______ (if Y, the test is too big — do not launch)
Page 5 — Opportunity cost + M11 prerequisite check
Run after prompt 7. The silent killer of expansion tests.
Market 1 workstreams during the test:
| Workstream | Hours/week diverted | Risk to market 1 (L/M/H) | Mitigation | What intentionally slips |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Content engine | ||||
| Acquisition channel | ||||
| Customer delivery | ||||
| Founder operations | ||||
| Other: ______ |
M11 prerequisite check (from M9 worksheet page 6):
- % of market 1 tasks currently founder-only: ______%
- If above 50%: go back to M11 prerequisites — the founder is not ready to dilute attention across two markets yet. Test is held until below 50%.
Page 6 — Kill / scale / hold rules + go/no-go into M11
Run after prompts 8, 9, 10. Written before launch. Followed at month 3.
Kill rule (3-5 conditions — any one tripping closes the test within 7 days):
| # | Condition | Metric | Threshold | Time window | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | close test, post-mortem, return budget | ||||
| 2 | |||||
| 3 | |||||
| 4 | |||||
| 5 |
Scale rule (4-6 conditions — all must be true to deploy into markets 3+):
| # | Condition | Metric | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |||
| 2 | |||
| 3 | |||
| 4 | |||
| 5 | |||
| 6 |
Hold rule (conditions for a 30-60 day extension — all must be true):
- Sample size below directional threshold (less than 50 qualified contacts): Y/N ______
- No kill conditions tripped: Y/N ______
- Cash buffer absorbs the extension without breaking scenario (b): Y/N ______
Diagnosis template — filled at month 3 if outcome is mixed:
- Stages that held: ______
- Stages that collapsed: ______
- Collapses likely tactical (fixable in market 2): ______
- Collapses likely structural (model doesn’t travel): ______
- What I’d have to believe to extend: ______
- What I’d have to believe to close: ______
Month 3 go/no-go into M11:
- Test outcome: pass / fail / mixed (circle one)
- If pass: scale rule conditions met? Y/N ______ → deploy to market 3 per plan
- If fail: budget returned to buffer? Y/N ______ → M11 reframes as “what is this business actually” rather than “how do we lift the founder off”
- If mixed: hold conditions met and 30-60 day extension launched? Y/N ______
M10 closed — signed and dated: ______ Date: ______